Paper: “The potential of agricultural land management to contribute to lower global surface temperatures,” Sci. Adv. 4, eaaq0932 (2018).
Research Team: A. Mayer, Z. Hausfather, A. D. Jones, W. L. Silver
Findings: We show that sequestration of 0.68 Pg C year−1 for 85 years could lower global tem- perature by 0.1°C in 2100 when combined with a low emission trajectory [Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6]. This value is potentially achievable using existing agricultural management approaches, without decreasing land area for food production. Existing agricultural mitigation approaches could lower global temperature by up to 0.26°C under RCP 2.6 or as much as 25% of remaining warming to 2°C. This declines to 0.14°C under RCP 8.5. Results were sen- sitive to assumptions regarding the duration of carbon sequestration rates, which is poorly constrained by data. Results provide a framework for the potential role of agricultural soil organic carbon sequestration in climate change mitigation.
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